Ah, we’re back. We’ve finally returned to the grounds of Tiger’s record-tying 82nd victory. PGA Tour golf is finally back in Japan following the confusion swirling around the COVID-19 pandemic, and Hideki Matsuyama returns to Japan (again) as a Masters champion, and will undoubtedly garner the most attention.
The field, however, is terrible. The headliners, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama, will garner about 80% (or more) of the win probability in this field. I mean, for DFS sake, Tommy Fleetwood is $10,000. TEN THOUSAND DOLLARS for Tommy Fleetwood; that’s all you need to know.
On the flip side, these are the events that we can take advantage of because with the shockingly high pricing, there’s value mixed in that people may overlook due to name recognition. Without further ado, let’s dive into it!
Locks of the Week
Collin Morikawa ($11,200)
This one is easy; and I promise I’m not just going to list the top players here. I’m going to take the $10k and up range and put a claim on one guy, and Morikawa is that guy. That’s not to say Xander or Hideki are bad plays, but it’ll be hard to roster two of those three at their prices (perhaps Hideki), so my belief is Morikawa is winning this golf tournament, so that’s who I’m locking in.
If you caught my course preview, this appears to be a heavy second-shot golf course. Collin Morikawa has separated himself as far and away the best iron player on the planet. There was a stat when he was in college (yes, college), that he was more accurate with his 6-iron than the average tour pro was with their 9-iron. Absurd.
No surprises here, but Morikawa leads the field in strokes gained on approach over the past 36 rounds. In addition to that, he’s:
1st: bogey avoidance
4th: good drives gained
4th: birdies or better gained
6th: strokes gained total in no-cut events
So let me get this straight: he’s 1st in iron play, 1st in creating birdie or better opportunities, AND 1st in avoiding bogeys. He’s also coming off a burning hot 17-under weekend to finish runner-up a week ago. He’s winning this week.
Rickie Fowler ($9,800)
I’m concerned with what Rickie’s ownership will be. If he’s 20%+, that might change my opinion here. But, we all saw what he did last week, and let’s be honest, not many of us thought he would close the deal on Sunday; but, that week was a huge step in the right direction.
He’s now gone from $6,400 to $9,800 in one week, which has to be the biggest price bump from one week to the next, ever. I’m hoping that is what keeps people off of him; however, he’s been trending in this direction, albeit slowly, for some time.
He popped off the model with his off the tee game a week ago, gaining 5.5 strokes on the week. Oddly enough, he finished T3, while losing over a stroke on the greens which, historically, has been his bread and butter. I think this could be another week where we see Rickie contend and, depending on what we see from the super elite in the field, potentially win if he finds a hot putter.
Emiliano Grillo ($9,100)
Another ball-striking specialist that has the ability to win if he happens to run into a hot putter. Grillo has been playing extremely well of late as well, without much results to show for it. He’s gained strokes on approach in seven of his last events, and gained off the tee in six straight, and nine of his last ten. However, in the last ten, he’s missed five cuts, and has just one top-15 finish which came at the Open Championship (T12).
What does that tell you? Awful putting. He’s lost strokes putting in nine of his last eleven events, and has lost more than two strokes in five of those. The silver lining: bent grass is his best putting surface, where he’s closer to a zero putter, which is all he needs to contend. Also, this field suits him well to be able to contend if he can just be average on the greens.
In the last 36 rounds among players in this field, he ranks:
6th: birdies or better gained
9th: good drives gained
10th: strokes gained on approach
19th: strokes gained total in no-cut events
Also, as bad as his putting has been, in the past eight rounds, he’s middle of the pack (37th) in strokes gained putting in this field. That’s honestly all we’d need. Elite ball-striking and middle of the pack putting, and we’re staring at a top-five.
Fades of the Week
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,000)
Again, this one is easy. I’d be surprised if Tommy surpassed 3% ownership this week. But, this price is so egregious, I have to include him. If he was in the mid-$8k area, it’d still be a fade; that’s how bad he’s been.
In this field, he’s:
35th: strokes gained on approach
42nd: strokes gained putting on bent grass
47th: good drives gained
56th: birdies or better gained
Keep in mind, these numbers are for the sixth highest priced player in the field. He should really be just a tick above all the Japanese qualifiers; and honestly, he’s probably in their same tier. There is no chance he contends here, and he’s not even worth a 150-max GPP flier.
Cameron Tringale ($9,200)
I think the Tringale heater is finally cooling down. He was out-performing his price consistently going back to the start of the 2020-2021 season. He was peppering the top-20 week-in and week-out, but after a 56th place finish two weeks ago at the Shriners, and a 59th place finish at the 78-player CJ Cup, I think we’ve reached the regression we knew was coming.
For the first time since October of 2020, Tringale has lost strokes on approach in back-to-back events. He doesn’t look as crisp and isn’t grading out as well in the model for the first time in a while.
He came 24th overall in my model this week, and in this field, that is not something to write home about. He’s the 14th highest priced player, so it just screams negative value to me. The ball-striking has not been pure as he’s one of the coldest in the field, ranking 62nd in the last eight rounds. He’s also been putrid on 175-200-yard par-3’s, ranking 71st in this field. Put all of that together, and it’s a no for me.
Rapid Fire: Studs & Duds in Each Tier
This is the portion of the article where I fire off two studs (in order of preference) and two duds in each remaining tier ($8k, $7k, $6k) with no explanation provided. There will be an “Avoiding Chalk” video that will post to my YouTube channel tomorrow, so don’t miss out on that for a little dive into some of these players.
$8k:
Studs:
Lanto Griffin ($8,400)
Jhonattan Vegas ($8,900)
Duds:
Charley Hoffman ($8,500)
Ryan Palmer ($8,300)
$7k:
Studs:
Henrik Norlander ($7,400)
Pat Perez ($7,300)
Duds:
Garrick Higgo ($7,800)
Sepp Straka ($7,100)
$6k:
Studs:
Andrew Putnam ($6,700)
Kyle Stanley ($6,200)
Duds:
Brandon Hagy ($6,600)
Chesson Hadley ($6,900)
As always, you can find me @joebutter_ on Twitter, and please share with your friends if you find anything here helpful! If you don’t share it with your friends anyway, because maybe they will!