Zozo Championship: Course Preview
A DFS preview of Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club ahead of the Zozo Championship!
Before we head overseas to Japan for the 3rd playing of the Zozo Championship (2nd in Japan, thanks to COVID-19), a congratulations is in order. Rory McIlroy has won the CJ Cup @ Summit Club to earn his 20th PGA Tour victory joining some very prestigious company. Unfortunately, he has yet to play his 15th season on Tour, so his lifetime exemption for 20 wins is not yet in effect, but we think he’ll be ok for the next two years.
This is coming after a very emotional McIlroy left Whistling Straits following a blowout loss to the US in the Ryder Cup. Very disappointed in his play, Rory said he “realized being me is good enough”. That’s scary for everyone else on Tour. Rory is just now realizing that he’s good enough to win on Tour; watch out!
Back to the Zozo. For the second time in three years, this championship is being played at the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Inzai, Chiba Prefecture, Japan. What a mouthful. The last time it was played here was in 2019, with Tiger Woods earning his record-tying 82nd victory.
There’s not much to find online regarding course information so I re-watched YouTube highlights of every one of Tiger’s broadcasted shots, which virtually showed me the entire course. It appears to be very straightforward; not many blind shots, or elevation changes. The biggest concern will be focusing on the correct green on each hole, as each hole features two greens.
This course is a ~7,200 yard par-70, featuring five par-3’s, 10 par-4’s, and three par-5’s. A little out of the ordinary as opposed to what we normally see in the states, but with ball-striking seemingly the most important stat to focus on, it shouldn’t change much with how we approach it.
Some Notable Finishes in 2019:
(1) Tiger Woods
(2) Hideki Matsuyama
(T3) Sungjae Im
(T3) Rory McIlroy
(T6) Corey Conners
(T6) Billy Horschel
(T10) Xander Schauffele
(T13) Keegan Bradley
(T13) Matthew Wolff
(T17) Daniel Berger
(T17) Paul Casey
(T17) Justin Thomas
We don’t have any strokes gained data from the 2019 edition of this event; however, we can make an educated guess as to what we need to look at based on this list: iron play. This is a list of some of the PGA Tour’s most elite ball-strikers.
Based on the course I saw via YouTube highlights, there’s not much trouble to get into, so it’s going to come down to a second-shot iron contest, so that’s what I’ll be heavily focused on.
Stats to look for:
Yep, you guessed it: strokes gained on approach. I will be weighing my model heavily on this statistic. I will use numbers for the last 36 rounds:
Paul Casey
Collin Morikawa
Keegan Bradley
Kyle Stanley
Emiliano Grillo
I will also pull a report of who’s been running the hottest lately, let’s say the past eight rounds:
Matthew NeSmith
Henrik Norlander
CT Pan
Rikuya Hoshino
Tom Hoge
In addition, I will also look into par-3 scoring. Now, this also goes in to the better iron players as well, but I’ll put a little additional stock into scoring on those holes, specifically from 175-200 as that range accounts for four of the five holes, with the fifth being 170 yards. It could settle a dispute between two very equal ball-strikers should it come down to it.
Also, Tiger went -9 for the week on the par-3’s in his 2019 victory, which was the best in the field. It could account for something..
Maverick McNealy
Lanto Griffin
Tommy Fleetwood
Alex Noren
Joaquin Niemann
I always put a little more stock into putting than most, but this week, I’m going to focus more on who’s running hot with the putter. AGNCC features bentgrass greens, so I will look at strokes gained putting over the past eight rounds on bent:
Alex Noren
Erik van Rooyen
Rickie Fowler
Mackenzie Hughes
Lanto Griffin
The last stat I’m going to be looking at will be bogey avoidance. It’s only one year of sample size, but the scoring in 2019 appeared to be more on the higher side from what I would’ve expected based on the course layout.
Tiger won the event at -19. However, behind him was Matsuyama at -16, then two tied for third at -13. It bunched up after that, and I know it’s a limited field, no-cut event, but for only two players to reach -14 or better is rare nowadays. Bogey avoidance may play a part in the results; and it always plays a part in DraftKings scoring:
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Will Zalatoris
Chris Kirk
Branden Grace
I will sprinkle a bit of total driving, because playing from the fairway (or shorter approach shots) is always an advantage, but won’t put much stock in it as this appears to be a heavy second-shot golf course. Give me the elite iron players who may be running hot with the putter, and let’s have some fun!
First Look Model #1:
Shockingly enough, my early model run produced the game’s very best iron player in the top overall spot: Collin Morikawa.
After what we saw him do over the weekend in Las Vegas, shooting 65-62 and losing out to McIlroy by just a single shot could be a catapult to a big week in Japan.
As always, you can find me @joebutter_ on Twitter, and please share with your friends if you find anything here helpful! If you don’t share it with your friends anyway, because maybe they will! DFS preview will be out tomorrow!