World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba: Course/DFS Preview
A DFS Preview of both El Camaleon Golf Club, as well as the Mayakoba!
Two things before we get started: 1) I will only refer to this event as the “Mayakoba Golf Classic*”, and 2) this is a preview for both the course and the players. I had some family stuff come up Sunday/Monday so I was unable to send out the course preview Monday morning. So I’ll keep this brief to avoid losing attention!
This week, the Tour will be headed to Mexico for the Mayakoba Golf Classic*. It will be hosted at El Camaleon Golf Club, which has hosted the golf tournament since its inception. El Camaleon is a 7,059 yard par-71. It features 11 par-4’s (seven of which between 400-450 yards), three par-5’s (all between 500-550 yards), and four par 3’s (three of which between 125-150 yards).
With the lack of strokes gained data at this event, I had to do some old school research. Pen, paper, and diving into some stats “around” this event. What I mean by that is I took some of the guys (14 top course history players, and previous 6 winners) and looked at what they were doing well in the events right before, and right after, to make an educated guess on what brought success at El Camaleon Golf Club.
The interesting thing I was able to find is that strokes gained off the tee was equally as common to strokes gained putting as the most common success stat. Generally speaking, approach is king; and it certainly showed up more often than not. It was still third on the list below off the tee and putting.
Outside of this, some of the things I will be focusing on:
strokes gained total in easy scoring conditions
strokes gained putting on average/slow greens
strokes gained on par 5’s under 550 yards
strokes gained tee to green on courses under 7,200 yards
proximity from 125-150 yards
Without further ado, let’s get into the DFS Preview!
$10k and up
Lock: Viktor Hovland ($10,900)
I’m not generally one to bet on/back the defending champion, but Hovland is trending in the perfect direction to go back-to-back in Mexico. He’s been hovering lately, with seven top-21 finishes in his last 12 events. He hasn’t missed a cut since the PLAYERS in March, and he’s coming off his best putting performance of his career (5.5 strokes gained) at the CJ Cup.
If the putter continues to run hot, and he gets his irons back to where they belong (lost 0.8 strokes at CJ Cup, first negative performance in 12 starts), he can win by multiple shots. The biggest concern I have with Hovland is his around the green play has been atrocious lately. He’s lost strokes in seven of his last eight, and has lost at least two strokes in four of those.
However, he’s third in this field in strokes gained total on courses under 7,200 yards, and 30th in fairways gained on short courses as well. On top of that, he’s second in the field in proximity from 125-150 yards. So, the recipe is there: hit fairways and go to work with your irons, so you’re not messing with around the green play. Make a few putts, and Hovland is hoisting the trophy.. again.
Honorable mention: Abraham Ancer ($10,700)
Fade: Brooks Koepka ($10,000)
This is a difficult group to find a fade. All seven players in this range graded out well in my model. I have been playing Brooks repeatedly in his recent events, all ending in disappointment. He hasn’t played *terribly*, but a T38 at the CJ Cup, and a T67 at the Shriners are disappointments from a guy like Koepka. The “don’t play Koepka in non-majors” narrative is an annoying one; but it truly seems to run true. Every time I try to be different, and use him in a standard event to gain an ownership edge, it fails.
Besides just simply narrative talk, he came in at #45 overall in my model, which was by far the worst in this range. Tony Finau was the next closest at #21 overall. In this field, he’s:
106th: fairways gained on courses under 7,200 yards
84th: strokes gained putting (12 rounds)
83rd: strokes gained total at El Camaleon Golf Club
72nd: strokes gained approached (36 rounds)
That, in addition to the non-major narrative, is going to keep me away from Brooks this week.
Honorable mention: Billy Horschel ($10,100)
$9k
Lock: Scottie Scheffler ($9,900)
This one is the toughest decision in the event for me. There are only two players in the $9k range that I like, and they are extremely close. I will have a few lineups that mirror each other with the exception of swapping out these two guys. I went with Scheffler solely due to strokes gained putting on slow greens (the other player is listed as the honorable mention).
Yes, it was that close. Scheffler is excellent across the board. Nothing inside the top-15, and nothing outside the top-55. He’s as steady as it gets, and is checking off every box I’m looking for. He’s only played the event once in the past, finishing T18 in 2019. He obviously knows how to handle the golf course, and has been great on short courses in easy scoring conditions (23rd in this field).
Honorable mention: Aaron Wise ($9,600)
Fade: Patrick Reed ($9,500)
I’m doubling down on fading Patrick Reed. I did it last week, which blew up in my face after he damn near won the thing; but this field is much different than what we saw in Bermuda. I’m betting on last week being the outlier in what has been a lackluster run of events for Captain America.
I mentioned off the tee could be a key statistic to watch this week. Reed is 116th in this field in strokes gained off the tee over his last 36 rounds. We don’t have any specific data from last week, but he was coming into Bermuda having lost at least 1.4 strokes off the tee in five straight events. In addition, he had lost strokes on approach in four straight, and lost at least 1.9 strokes in three straight. Not good.
Admittedly, I write these posts prior to looking at ownership projections, because I want this to simply be an informational piece on who I think has the best chance to play well. My guess is that Reed will be highly owned with his reasonable price tag, and runner up finish a week ago. That will make fading him that much easier for me.
Honorable mention: Shane Lowry ($9,300)
$8k
Lock: Russell Henley ($8,200)
I’m a sucker for Russell Henley. He always pops in models because his iron play always jumps off the page. However, this week, the putter *might* not be as much of a detriment as it normally is.
He obviously jumps off the page in the usual spots:
1st: strokes gained approach (36 rounds)
8th: proximity from 125-150 yards
10th: strokes gained total: courses under 7,200 yards in easy scoring conditions
16th: fairways gained on courses under 7,200 yards
The usual issue is the putter. But this week, if the greens run slow (a big *if*, but they generally do at El Camaleon), he’s 50th in this field in strokes gained putting on average/slow greens. That is huge. If he ends the week in the top-50 in putting, I will personally guarantee a top-5.
Honorable mention: Rickie Fowler ($8,600)
Fade: Alex Noren ($8,400)
Alex Noren is the polar opposite of Russell Henley, which is why he’s my fade here. I believe Henley will finish in the top-10, which in turns leads me to believe Noren will miss the cut.
He’s 86th in this field in approach. Opposite. He’s 120th in this field in proximity from 125-150 yards. Opposite. On top of that, he’s the 2nd ranked putter in the field. Opposite. However, he’s 47th in this field in strokes gained putting on average/slow greens, which is a big drop from his normal putting. Opposite.
Ok, partially joking there, but the stats are real. He’s outside the top-90 in strokes gained on par 5’s, as well as in fairways gained on short courses. He’s got a lot of red across his line that just makes it hard for me to believe that he plays well this week.
Honorable mention: Cameron Tringale ($8,900)
$7k
Lock: Joel Dahmen ($7,000)
This is a loaded range. There are a lot of players in the $7k’s and quite a few that I like. Dahmen stands out to me for his price (min-$7k) and what I believe his ownership will be. I don’t think he’s going to be as popular as some of the others down here: Norlander, Todd, List, Perez, Hadwin, etc.
Dahmen is the 49th highest priced player in the field, yet came in at #13 overall in my model. Value. He’s top-65 in every single statistic I’m looking for, with the exception of strokes gained on par 5’s. While that specifically is worrisome, he’s excellent on approach, and from within 125-150 yards, which leads me to believe that he will find a way to score on these shorter par-5’s one way or another.
His strokes gained putting numbers are a little worse on slower greens, but still not bad enough to get me off the play. If ownership is low, he’s a GPP winner; if ownership is high, he’s good chalk and find an edge elsewhere.
Honorable mention: Carlos Ortiz ($7,600)
Fade: Charley Hoffman ($7,700)
Charley Hoffman is probably a lock to make the cut, but I want better than that. At a very reasonable price tag, he’s probably going to be one of the chalkier $7k options, and a chalky T43 won’t do you much good.
In a 128-player field, he came in at #112 in my model. It’s very hard for me to ignore that, but a lot of it is due to poor ball-striking. He’s:
71st: strokes gained approach (36 rounds)
72nd: strokes gained total at El Camaleon Golf Club
83rd: strokes gained putting (12 rounds)
101st: fairways gained on courses under 7,200 yards
106th: strokes gained par 5
113th: strokes gained total on short courses in easy scoring conditions
It’s a no for me, dawg.
Honorable mention: Brian Harman ($7,300)
$6k
Lock: Guido Migliozzi ($6,900)
I am extremely interested to see what Guido’s ownership projection is because this price is crazy to me. An $1,800 price drop in a field that, let’s face it, isn’t a the star-studded field it’s being made out to be. Guido put together two great rounds, and two awful rounds a week ago in Bermuda. One awful round came on Sunday during threat of severe weather and he was already out of contention; chalk that up to trying to get off the island.. maybe?
I do believe he has a good week in Mexico and he was the single highest value on the board in my model. He has no course history, and no data on slower green surfaces, however, in all other categories, he’s inside the top-55. All that being said, he’s 5th overall in my model this week.
Also, take it for what it’s worth, but he’s a Euro Tour “vet”, so the flying around to different countries on a weekly basis is nothing new to him, so I’m not at all concerned about the travel over the past two weeks. What I do see is an excellent ball-striker (15th in approach) and an excellent putter (22nd in putting over 12 rounds). What more do we need?
Honorable mention: Chris Kirk ($6,700)
Fade: Keith Mitchell ($6,800)
Keith Mitchell got some traction after his fast start to the CJ Cup before struggling a bit over a weekend, finishing in a tie for third. However, before that week, he really had not been playing well. He finished T57 in a 70-man BMW Championship field, then followed that up with two missed cuts.
He has done very well off the tee (2nd in this field) and strokes gained on par 5’s (3rd in this field), and has been terrible in everything else. He’s the “bermuda killer”, but unfortunately, this course does not feature bermuda grass putting surfaces.
He’s 94th or worse in all of the following:
strokes gained putting (12 rounds)
strokes gained putting on average/slow greens
strokes gained total at El Camaleon Golf Club
fairways gained on courses under 7,200 yards
strokes gained approach (36 rounds)
It doesn’t look good. He brings some name value in this range to the casual DFS’er, but let them ride to a missed cut, and we’ll reap the benefits of having faded him.
Honorable mention: Dylan Frittelli ($6,800)
As always, you can find me @joebutter_ on Twitter, and please share with your friends if you find anything here helpful! If you don’t share it with your friends anyway, because maybe they will!