Houston Open: Course Preview
A DFS Preview of Memorial Park Golf Course ahead of the Houston Open!
Not to toot my own horn (ok, yes, I’m tooting the horn), but I’m coming off my first outright pick of the 2021-2022 season. Viktor Hovland was my favorite player going into the Mayakoba*, as evidenced by the fact that he was in 17 of my 31 lineups, and he was my primary lock of the week last week!
He was dominant over the weekend, taking a stranglehold of the event on Saturday with a 9-under 62, and never allowed anyone to make things interesting on Sunday. The hot putter continued, and the irons got back to normal, and we saw what his potential is: dominating victories.
But enough of the past; let’s focus on the present. This week, the Tour finally returns to the mainland; and in turn, brings with it the shot tracker. I’ve sincerely missed shot tracker information and being able to properly follow online. Let’s face it, the coverage (TV and web) sucked the past couple weeks, so it’ll be nice to be able to actually consume golf again.
The boys will head to Texas for the Houston Open hosted by Memorial Park Golf Course. This will be the second edition of this event at this golf course, with Carlos Ortiz reigning victorious a year ago. One of the many exciting events from the 2020-2021 season, as we saw Ortiz outduel DJ and Matsuyama to win the event by two for his first, and only, PGA Tour victory.
Memorial Park Golf Course is a 7,302 par-70, with five par-3’s, 10 par-4’s, and 3 par-5’s. The course is constructed uniquely, as it’s home to only 20 bunkers, and consists of four par-4’s longer than its shortest par-5. Looking at a course map, it appears that two holes (16 & 17) have major water in play, and the rest of the course is defended by tree-lined fairways and steep runoffs around the green.
Lastly, after watching some 2020 highlights, it appears the majority of holes are right in front of you. Straight-away holes that require accurate iron play, as missing the greens can create some very difficult, and awkward, pitch shots.
My two favorite comp courses I’ve found are (last 24 rounds):
Country Club of Jackson
Denny McCarthy
Jason Kokrak
Carlos Ortiz
Sam Burns
Sungjae Im
TPC Summerlin
Matthew Wolff
Sungjae Im
Tony Finau
Martin Laird
Matthew NeSmith
Stats to Look for:
Most weeks on the PGA Tour require the same stuff: exceptional iron play and hot putting. It’s virtually the recipe for success on a weekly basis. When it comes to approach play, it’s always the highest weighted stat in my model. However, I like to combine it with a report of who’s running hot as well. The top-5 in strokes gained approach over the last 36 rounds:
Russell Henley
Kyle Stanley
Talor Gooch
Shane Lowry
Chez Reavie
In addition, the top-5 over the last eight rounds:
Russell Henley
Talor Gooch
Mito Pereira
Matthew NeSmith
Adam Scott
Henley and Gooch appear in both, and spoiler alert (!), I LOVE Gooch this week at first glance. When it comes to putting, I also like to look more towards who’s running hot, rather than who is the best putter in general. Over the last eight rounds in strokes gained putting on bermuda greens:
Nate Lashley
Branden Grace
Nick Watney
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Adam Schenk
Perfect, now let’s dive in to some of the unique stats we may be looking for. From what I gathered from this course, it appears total driving could play a major role. 7,300 yards is on the longer side for a par-70, especially one with five par-3’s. I’m going to look at total driving, with a lean on the driving distance side. Here’s the top-5 over the last 36 rounds:
Taylor Pendrith
Brooks Koepka
Keith Mitchell
Mito Pereira
Jhonattan Vegas
With the unique setup of this golf course, I’d be dumb to not look into par-3 statistics. Memorial Park GC features three par-3’s over 200 yards, and the other two fall within the 150-175 yard range. Instead of trying to separate the two ranges, I believe it would make more sense to simply look at strokes gained par-3 as a whole. With the potential of moving boxes, etc., let’s just look at 36 rounds of par-3’s:
Marc Leishman
Sam Burns
Jason Kokrak
Harold Varner III
Adam Scott
The last major stat I will throw in is strokes gained around the green. As I’ve mentioned, the runoffs around the green provide the golf course with its strongest defense. Even the best iron players on the planet will miss the green from time to time; we need to find the guys that will not let those narrow misses turn into double bogeys:
Dylan Frittelli
Stephan Jaeger
Brian Harman
Harry Higgs
Aaron Wise
So there you have it; a quick, to-the-point breakdown of Memorial Park Golf Course. A uniquely set up track that will provide for an exciting event, that certainly forced the cream of the crop to rise a year ago. We have another good field, and with the return of PGA Tour Live and shot tracker, we’ll actually get to watch them this time!
My early lean:
Sam Burns. He’s arguably been the most consistent player in the world (not named Jon Rahm) going back to May of 2020. Since his breakout win at the Valspar Championship, he’s picked up a second win, two runner-ups, two more top-10’s, and three top-20’s in 13 events, with just one missed cut (US Open). I haven’t dived into the stats yet, but if forced to pick a winner right now (Sunday evening), I’m going with Burns to get his third victory in six months.
Check in Tuesday for my full DFS preview! As always, you can find me @joebutter_ on Twitter, and please share with your friends if you find anything here helpful! If you don’t share it with your friends anyway, because maybe they will!